大通金融外汇交易平台
  • 9795 3670 20 44+:بريطانيا0589 5808 852+:هونغ كونغ حساب حقيقي حساب تجريبي
  • Menu
حساب الوسيط المعرف حساب حقيقي حساب تجريبي

Market News

Financial News From The Sharpest Perspective    Financial Data With The Most Comprehensive Analysis

have updated

  • Australia: Construction work reportedly pulled backed in Q4 - Westpac

    Andrew Hanlan, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the Australian construction work reportedly pulled backed in Q4, down 19.4%, following gains of 9.8% and 16.6% in Q2 and Q3. Key Quotes “Construction work fell back in Q4, down 19.4%, after outcomes in Q2 and Q3 were inflated by the impo...

    2018-02-21

    Andrew Hanlan, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the Australian construction work reportedly pulled backed in Q4, down 19.4%, following gains of 9.8% and 16.6% in Q2 and Q3.

    Key Quotes

    “Construction work fell back in Q4, down 19.4%, after outcomes in Q2 and Q3 were inflated by the importation of large LNG structures.”

    “Currently, the headline figure for the survey is not a reliable indicator for the national accounts. The survey counts the full value of these LNG structure when they are imported, while the national accounts includes only the value of work completed during the period.”

    “Excluding private engineering (the segment distorted by this accounting issue), provides some insights into Q4 activity.”

    “On this basis, activity in Q4 was softer than anticipated, with a temporary dip in public infrastructure work and with private new residential building work declining.”

    “Total public works fell by 0.9%, whereas we anticipated a rise of 1.4%. While public building work rose, up 6.4%, this was more than offset by a 4.5% drop in public infrastructure activity. This fall is only a temporary dip given a sizeable work pipeline and with state governments committing to further projects, particularly transport initiatives.”

    “Total private building work edged lower in Q4, down 0.4%, whereas we anticipated a rise of 1.0%.”

    “New residential building work moved lower again, down 2.4%, following -3.0% in Q1, -0.4% in Q2 and a +0.7% in Q3. We had expected a stabilisation in Q4 ahad of a moderation in work during 2018 with approvals down from the peaks of 2016. By contrast, the RBA expects work to hold up at a high level.”

    “Renovation work moved higher, but only marginally, +0.5%, a disappointing result after a sharp 7.6% decline in Q3, a fall associated with the household sector reining in spending.”

    “Non-residential building work advanced strongly, as anticipated, up 3.4%, extending the upward trend that emerged early in 2017. There is considerable further upside to commercial building work in 2018, particularly in Victoria, as the capital stock expands to meet the needs of a growing population – with projects spanning offices, retail, accommodation and entertainment.”

  • EUR/JPY fails to hold 133.00, pulling back ahead of Eurozone PMIs

    EUR/JPY pulling back after an Asia lift. Yen is down across the board, but Euro still soft. EUR/JPY has pulled back after climbing to reach an Asia session high of 133.06 and is now trading into the 132.80 region ahead of European markets. Today brings the European Markit PMIs, beginning with ...

    2018-02-21
    • EUR/JPY pulling back after an Asia lift.
    • Yen is down across the board, but Euro still soft.

    EUR/JPY has pulled back after climbing to reach an Asia session high of 133.06 and is now trading into the 132.80 region ahead of European markets.

    Today brings the European Markit PMIs, beginning with France at 08:00 GMT, Germany at 08:30, and the broad Eurozone at 09:00. Swiss Industrial Production will also be released today, but the time has not been set. Market forecasts have broadly anticipated a small decline in the headline figures, with analysts predicting a reading 58.5 for the Markit PMI Composite for February, compared to the previous period's reading of 58.8. 

    The Euro is struggling to gain a foot over the Yen, only finding the floor after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) threatened market participants with direct intervention if the Yen doesn't stop strengthening in the FX markets. 

    EUR/JPY Technicals

    The pair is still trading close to the recent low of 131.59 and is currently testing into the 8-day EMA, which is still below the 34 EMA while the 200-day SMA is acting as support from the 131.00 major handle. Resistance is priced in from 133.07 and 134.31, while a bearish continuation will face support from 131.57 and 131.14.

  • Australia: Some signs of steady progress in Wage Price Index (Q4) – Capital Economics

    According to Paul Dales, Chief Australia & New Zealand Economist at Capital Economics, the rise in wage growth in the fourth quarter may be the first real sign that wages are benefiting from the recent strength of jobs growth for Australian economy. Key Quotes “But real wages have been s...

    2018-02-21

    According to Paul Dales, Chief Australia & New Zealand Economist at Capital Economics, the rise in wage growth in the fourth quarter may be the first real sign that wages are benefiting from the recent strength of jobs growth for Australian economy.

    Key Quotes

    “But real wages have been stagnant for two years. And the excess supply of labour and long-term structural forces will prevent wage growth from rising rapidly.”

    “The 0.6% q/q rise in the wage price index pushed up the annual growth rate from 2.0% to 2.1% (the consensus forecast was 2.0%). That’s the second increase in annual wage growth in a row. But while the rise from 1.9% in the second quarter to 2.0% in the third was largely due to the bigger-than-usual rise in the minimum wage on 1st July, the rise in the fourth quarter may be due to the improving labour market.”

    “Admittedly, wage growth in both the private (1.9%) and public sectors (2.4%) was unchanged. But that’s just due to rounding. More importantly, wage growth rose in the sectors and states where activity is improving most. It rose from 1.2% in the third quarter to 1.4% in the fourth in the mining sector, from 1.8% to 1.9% in the construction sector and from 1.5% to 1.8% in professional business services. It also rose from 1.3% to 1.5% in Western Australia and from 2.2% to 2.4% in Victoria, although it fell from 2.1% to 2.0% in New South Wales.”

    “But it’s not time to break out the champagne and conclude that the era of very low wage growth is over as there are a few reasons why wage growth will only edge up gradually, perhaps to 2.3% by the end of this year and to 2.5% next year. First, it will take another couple of years of decent jobs growth to absorb all the excess supply in the labour market. Second, the recent slump in the rates built into enterprise bargaining agreements will restrain wage growth as these agreements tend to last for a couple of years. Finally, the long-term forces of globalisation and technological innovation that have restrained wage growth everywhere are unlikely to fade soon.”

    “So wage growth is unlikely to significantly boost income growth or underlying inflation this year at least. Indeed, once you strip out inflation, which is currently 2.0%, real wages haven’t risen for two years. The RBA would need to see more evidence that wage growth is rising before it raises interest rates. Our view is that won’t happen until the second half of next year.”

  • BoJ: Kuroda has a task in his hand already - Nomura

    In view of Takahide Kiuchi, Executive Economist at Nomura, the biggest challenge facing BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in his second term will be to avoid a sudden emergence of the various side effects that have been created by the unprecedentedly loose monetary policies implemented by the BOJ during ...

    2018-02-21

    In view of Takahide Kiuchi, Executive Economist at Nomura, the biggest challenge facing BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in his second term will be to avoid a sudden emergence of the various side effects that have been created by the unprecedentedly loose monetary policies implemented by the BOJ during his first term, while also gradually reducing those side effects.

    Key Quotes

    “Kuroda’s reappointment most likely eliminates the possibility of the BOJ needlessly adopting additional monetary easing measures under the current economic and financial conditions in Japan. Kuroda’s reappointment despite his failure to achieve the 2% price stability target that has been the pillar of his monetary policy management likely indicates that early achievement of that target was not really considered all that important by the Abe administration. Accordingly, I believe it should be easier for Kuroda to adopt a more flexible stance on the 2% target during his second term and move toward monetary policy normalization.”

  • NZ: Housing market on ice doesn’t mean economy on the rocks - ANZ

    Analysts at ANZ suggest that although activity has shown more signs of life of late, and the risk profile does appear less negatively skewed than it did, they have not changed their overall views about the NZ economy. Key Quotes “We see prices effectively staying ‘on ice’ for the...

    2018-02-21

    Analysts at ANZ suggest that although activity has shown more signs of life of late, and the risk profile does appear less negatively skewed than it did, they have not changed their overall views about the NZ economy.

    Key Quotes

    “We see prices effectively staying ‘on ice’ for the foreseeable future, with modest growth overall. But what does that imply for the broader economic outlook? History has taught us that the housing market has a critical bearing on the economic cycle. All else being equal, we expect softer house price growth to be a headwind for consumption growth going forward, although perhaps to a lesser extent than history would suggest, given that the softer housing market has not been driven by a turn in the interest rate cycle, but rather by a more restrictive credit landscape, including macro-prudential policy. Nevertheless, with the household saving rate having deteriorated over recent years (to an unsustainable level in our view), weaker house price performance is expected to see households look to rebuild precautionary saving, and this will be a headwind for overall activity growth.”

    Property Gauges

    Housing market activity has shown more signs of life of late, bouncing off low levels, perhaps on the back of recent mortgage rate falls. However, our overall views have not changed. There are clear opposing forces. On the one hand, strong population growth coupled with a challenged supply backdrop argues that a fundamental supply-demand imbalance will continue to drive prices higher. Yet this is going head-to-head with tighter lending standards, LVR restrictions (although these are gradually being eased), affordability constraints and possibly more restrictive government policy changes. We continue to see price growth remaining modest.”

    Economic Overview

    We retain a broadly constructive view of the medium-term growth picture, with support from stimulatory fiscal policy, accommodative financial conditions and elevated terms of trade. That said, while risks are arguably not as negatively skewed as they were, we remain a little more circumspect towards the near-term growth picture as the economy transitions in terms of its growth drivers and grapples with a softer housing market. We are still biased towards OCR hikes in time. However, with a lack of clear evidence of a lift in domestic price pressures, the OCR looks to be on hold for some time yet.”

    Mortgage Borrowing Strategy

    With average 1-year fixed mortgage rates falling in the past month, and the 1-year rate now clearly the low point on the mortgage curve, it offers the most value in our eyes. While the gap to the 2-year rate is not large and may be attractive for those concerned about the possibility of the OCR moving up within the next year, that is not our expectation. In fact, we don’t see the first OCR hike until August next year, and it could be even later than this. Indeed, the RBNZ sees the risks of the next move being a hike or a cut as balanced. But ultimately, borrowers may wish to spread risk by borrowing over a number of fixed terms.”

  • Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.5%) in December

    Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.5%) in December

    2018-02-21

  • RBA to hike gradually but likely to keep patience for now - TDS

    Annette Beacher, Chief Asia-Pacific Macro Strategist at TDS, suggests that they are updating their RBA call in the wake of today's Dec qtr Wage Cost Index report and while wages growth did not disappoint, ticking higher to 2.1%/y, the sluggish pickup combined with lower-than-they-expected underl...

    2018-02-21

    Annette Beacher, Chief Asia-Pacific Macro Strategist at TDS, suggests that they are updating their RBA call in the wake of today's Dec qtr Wage Cost Index report and while wages growth did not disappoint, ticking higher to 2.1%/y, the sluggish pickup combined with lower-than-they-expected underlying inflation and a patient RBA has spurred us to drop our long-held May hike, but leave in place our November +25bp hike, for a year-end cash rate of 1.75%.

    Key Quotes

    “The debate of central bank should vs will begin policy normalisation is never far away: our preference is to remain at the hawkish end of the analyst spectrum, but unfortunately, the RBA has emerged from its long summer hiatus pushing the 'gradual' theme, and we have to listen.”

    “Even with our new less-hawkish view, OIS still appears to be asleep at the wheel. Current pricing is 58% for our November hike base case, and the first full +25bp is not fully priced until February 2019.”

    “We continue to hold a defensive stance on AUD, given that the hurdle for a near-term rate hike by the RBA is higher. AUDUSD supports are located near $US0.7750, and 1.06 in AUDNZD.”

  • Gold risk reversals retrace bullish bias as prices

    Gold (XAU/USD) risk reversals show demand for XAU calls has weakened.  The metal trades below the 50-day moving average (MA).  The XAU/USD one month 25 delta risk reversals are being paid today at XAU 0.225 calls vs. XAU 0.40 calls last Thursday (recent high). The decline indicat...

    2018-02-21
    • Gold (XAU/USD) risk reversals show demand for XAU calls has weakened. 
    • The metal trades below the 50-day moving average (MA). 

    The XAU/USD one month 25 delta risk reversals are being paid today at XAU 0.225 calls vs. XAU 0.40 calls last Thursday (recent high). The decline indicates the premium claimed by XAU calls over XAU puts has dropped, i.e the demand for bullish bets (calls) has weakened. 

    That said, the risk reversals are still holding well above the monthly low of -0.475 (or XAU 0.475 puts). 

    As of writing, the metal is trading just below the ascending 50-day MA of $1328. The rising Treasury yields and the pick up in the greenback seem to have weighed over the metal this week. 

    Gold Technical Levels

    A break above $1330 (session high) would add credence to the upward sloping (bullish biased) 50-day MA and open doors for a sustained rise to $1340 (10-day MA) and $1346 (Feb. 6 high). On the downside, breach of support at $1324 (Jan. 18 low) could yield a pullback to $1316 (38.2% Fib R of Dec-Jan rally). A daily close below the same would allow for a bigger sell-off to $1300 (psychological level). 

     

  • GBP/USD staying afloat ahead of unemployment, earnings data

    GBP/USD refusing to continue Dollar slide. Dollar advancing on rising bond yields. UK Employment, Earnings slated for 09:30. GBP/USD traded sideways on Tuesday with the Sterling staunchly refusing to give up further ground to the US Dollar. The pair is down slightly ahead of the European marke...

    2018-02-21
    • GBP/USD refusing to continue Dollar slide.
    • Dollar advancing on rising bond yields.
    • UK Employment, Earnings slated for 09:30.

    GBP/USD traded sideways on Tuesday with the Sterling staunchly refusing to give up further ground to the US Dollar. The pair is down slightly ahead of the European market session, currently trading into the sub-1.3990 region.

    It's a data-loaded Wednesday for the GBP/USD today with Average Earnings growth, ILO 3-month Unemployment Rate, Claimant Count, and Public Sector Net Borrowing, all dropping at 09:30 GMT. The primary focus will be on ILO Unemployment and Average Earnings, with market forecasters anticipating both key indicators to hold at their previous readings of 4.3% for ILO Unemployment and 2.5% in Average Earnings. Analysts at Westpac are bucking the forecast trend, calling for a 2.6% increase in year-on-year figures for Average Earnings, and are also anticipating a healthy beat in the employment figures as well.

    The Greenback has been buoyed higher by rising bond yields, but the Sterling continues to fight back as positive data continues to boost the UK's economic outlook and the Bank of England (BoE) prepares to begin lifting interest rates, with many participants expecting the first rate lift in May. The GBP strength may get challenged by US data later in the day, with the Markit PMI Index at 14:45 and FOMC Minutes at 19:00.

    GBP/USD Technicals

    The pair has halted the latest Dollar-based slide and the price is currently consolidating on support from the 8-day EMA. GBP/USD recently rebounded from support at the 34 EMA near 1.3831 but is still trading below the recent high of 1.4344 made in January. The pair is currently straddled by support and resistance at 1.3764 and 1.4142 respectively, while a further push lower will find support at 1.3655 and buyers will face pressure from 1.4259 and the previous high of 1.4344.

  • US 2-yr T-yield at highest since 2008, curve flattens ahead of Fed minutes

    Two-year yield rises to highest since September 2008. Treasury yield curve flattens. Focus on Fed minutes. The short-term borrowing costs in the US as represented by the two-year Treasury yield rose to a decade high ahead of the Fed minutes release.  The yield on the 2-year note rose to ...

    2018-02-21
    • Two-year yield rises to highest since September 2008.
    • Treasury yield curve flattens.
    • Focus on Fed minutes.

    The short-term borrowing costs in the US as represented by the two-year Treasury yield rose to a decade high ahead of the Fed minutes release. 

    The yield on the 2-year note rose to 2.282 percent - the highest level since September 2008. Meanwhile, the curve (the difference between the 10-year yield and the 2-year yield) flattened (narrowed) to 63.2 basis points (bps), the lowest since Feb. 1. 

    Bond market experts are associating the pick up in the treasury yields with the supply wave. The US government will sell $258 billion worth of debt this week to fund the biggest tax reform in 30 years and a 2.5-year federal spending package.

    That said, the treasury yields may rise further if the minutes of the January Fed meeting due today offers insight into why the officials added the word “further” twice to their statement. 

    A Bloomberg report says, "at Chair Janet Yellen’s last meeting Jan. 30-31, the central bank pledged twice to make “further gradual adjustments” in interest rates as opposed to just “gradual adjustments” at the prior gathering. The language was consistent with adding more emphasis to the plan for rate hikes."

  • UK: Strong jobs growth to continue and wage growth to pick up - Nomura

    Analysts at Nomura are out with their expectations on today’s UK labour market report due to be released at 0930 GMT. Key Quotes: “The January labour market report revealed a generally upbeat set of numbers. Private sector regular pay growth rose to between 3% and 4% (based on 3m, 4m, ...

    2018-02-21

    Analysts at Nomura are out with their expectations on today’s UK labour market report due to be released at 0930 GMT.

    Key Quotes:

    “The January labour market report revealed a generally upbeat set of numbers. Private sector regular pay growth rose to between 3% and 4% (based on 3m, 4m, 5m and 6m average annualised rates), while employment rose by around 100k over the latest published rolling quarter.

    We expect strong jobs growth to continue (+150k q-o-q) and wage growth to pick up (regular pay 2.6% y-o-y up from 2.3%) as the economy expands at or modestly above what is believed to be its trend rate.”

  • EUR/USD - Short-term bear reversal sighted ahead of EZ PMIs

    EUR/USD looks heavy as per short-term technical set up.  Eyes Eurozone preliminary PMI release. USD well bid on Fed expectations and rising treasury yields EUR/USD fell below 1-hour 200-MA yesterday and was last seen trading in a sideways manner around 1.2335.  Friday's bearish ...

    2018-02-21
    • EUR/USD looks heavy as per short-term technical set up. 
    • Eyes Eurozone preliminary PMI release.
    • USD well bid on Fed expectations and rising treasury yields

    EUR/USD fell below 1-hour 200-MA yesterday and was last seen trading in a sideways manner around 1.2335. 

    Friday's bearish outside day candle and weak follow through this week indicates a short-term bullish-to-bearish trend change. So, doors seem to have opened for a decline to 1.2206 (Feb. 9 low and also double top neckline support). 

    That said, the EUR/USD could regain its mojo if the preliminary Eurozone PMI (due today) show continued expansion in economic activity in February. 

    However, the gains need to be viewed with caution as the focus seems to have shifted to rising US treasury yields. The recent US data points have shown an uptick in inflation and wages, justifying a faster Fed policy tightening. So, the odds are high that markets will begin repricing a more hawkish Fed policy, especially if the Fed minutes due today sound hawkish. 

    Further, German and Italian political risks could keep EUR bulls at bay. The EUR/USD one-month 25 delta risk reversals have slipped to -0.7 from the recent high of -0.5, indicating increased demand for EUR puts (bearish bets). 

    EUR/USD Technical Levels

    Acceptance above 1.2412 (previous day's high) could yield re-test of 1.25 (psychological level). However, only a daily close above 1.2556 (Friday's bearish outside day candle high) would revive the bullish outlook. 

    On the other hand, a daily close below 1.2206 (Feb. 9 low, double top neckline) would mean the rally from January 2017 low of 1.0341 has ended. In such a scenario, the pair could test the ascending 50-day MA of 1.2165 and could possibly break lower in favor of 1.20 (psychological level). 


     

  • USD/JPY rally gathers traction on higher yields

    USD/JPY could be tracking treasury yields higher.  Focus on Fed speak and Fed minutes.  The USD/JPY pair is extending the three-day winning streak, tracking the rise in short duration borrowing costs in the US.  As of writing, the pair is trading at 107.75 - above the downward s...

    2018-02-21
    • USD/JPY could be tracking treasury yields higher. 
    • Focus on Fed speak and Fed minutes. 

    The USD/JPY pair is extending the three-day winning streak, tracking the rise in short duration borrowing costs in the US. 

    As of writing, the pair is trading at 107.75 - above the downward sloping 10-day moving average (MA) of 107.49. 

    The greenback is well bid possibly due to the rise in the treasury yields. For instance, the two-year Treasury yield, which mimics short-term interest rate/inflation expectations, rose to 2.28 percent in Asia - the highest level since September 2008. It should be noted the sharp rise in yields is being associated with the massive auction of $258 billion in Treasuries this week. 

    Also, markets could be repricing a more hawkish Fed policy, given the recent data has shown uptick in inflation and wage growth numbers. 

    Ahead in the day, the spot may come under pressure if the equities turn risk-averse. Also, the greenback could be influenced by Fed-speak. Reuters report says, "comments from Fed members Harker (Wed), Quarles (Thu), Dudley (Thu, Fri), Bostic (Thu), Mester (Fri) and Williams (Fri) are sure to be more relevant for the USD than today's release of the January Fed minutes."

    USD/JPY Technical Levels

    A daily close above the 10-day would cement expectations of a short-term bullish trend reversal and open doors for a sustained move to 108.29 (weekly 5-MA) and 108.54 (38.2% Fib R of Jan. 8 high - Feb. 16 low). 

    Meanwhile, a failure to hold above the session low of 107.28 would add credence to the downward sloping (bearish biased) 10-day MA and could yield a drop to 106.80 (5-day MA) and 106.57 (1-hour 100-MA). 

     

     

  • AUD/USD falls back down following construction data disappointment

    AUD/USD retreats on construction miss. USD getting a push from bond yields. AUD/USD has dropped lower again following a pick up in early Tokyo trading, and the pair is currently back down below 0.7880. The Aussie slipped against the Greenback after a disappointment in the Construction Work Don...

    2018-02-21
    • AUD/USD retreats on construction miss.
    • USD getting a push from bond yields.

    AUD/USD has dropped lower again following a pick up in early Tokyo trading, and the pair is currently back down below 0.7880.

    The Aussie slipped against the Greenback after a disappointment in the Construction Work Done figures for the 4th quarter of 2017, coming in at a 19.4 contraction, widely missing the median market forecast of a 10% decline, and a deep correction from the previous reading of 16.6%. While Wage Price Index data posted a mild beat over forecasts with year-on-year posting 2.1% versus the anticipated 2%, mixed economic data points for Australia continues to pigeonhole the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in wait-and-see mode. Headline growth figures for Australia continue to lag behind global trends, and the RBA is left in a holding pattern, unlikely to raise key rates into 2020 while central banks around the world prepare to begin tightening their respective easy fiscal policies and prepare to fight inflation.

    The US will see the Redbook Index at 13:55 GMT today, followed closely by a speech by FOMC member Harker at 14:00. Australia will be looking forward to New Motor Vehicle Sales and Private Capital Expenditure early Thursday at 00:30.

    AUD/USD Technicals

    With the Greenback experiencing newfound confidence and getting buoyed by rising bond yields, AUD/USD appears to have priced in a pullback following the turnaround from 0.7988. Daily candles are now trading just beneath the 34 EMA, with the 200-day SMA still below at 0.7770. Current support is priced in at 0.7854 and 0.7780, and resistance waiting to challenge any bullish swings at 0.7908 and 0.7966.

  • AUD/USD risk reversals continue to retrace bearish bias

    Demand for AUD puts weakens despite a drop in the AUD/USD spot.  The AUD/USD pair left a lower high of 0.7989 on the daily chart on Feb. 16 and was last seen attempting a break below the ascending 50-day moving average level of 0.7871.  However, the decline from 0.7989 to 0.7871 has n...

    2018-02-21
    • Demand for AUD puts weakens despite a drop in the AUD/USD spot. 

    The AUD/USD pair left a lower high of 0.7989 on the daily chart on Feb. 16 and was last seen attempting a break below the ascending 50-day moving average level of 0.7871. 

    However, the decline from 0.7989 to 0.7871 has not revived interest in AUD puts (bearish bets), the AUD/USD risk reversals indicate. 

    The one-month 25 delta risk reversals are being paid at 0.875 AUD puts vs. 0.925 AUD puts on Feb. 16 and 1.225 AUD puts on Feb. 9. The drop in indicates the premium claimed by AUD puts over AUD calls has dropped. The diverging risk reversals indicate the investors are not concerned about the decline in the AUD spot. 

    One-month 25 delta risk reversals (AUD1MRR)

     

  • NZD/JPY claims the 79.00 handle in Tokyo trading

    NZD/JPY clambers up to take 79.00. Kiwi confidence comes on the heels of Yen selling. NZD/JPY is climbing in Tokyo trading, testing into the 79.00 major level as of writing. The Kiwi is climbing following comments by the incoming head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Adrian Orr. Orr ...

    2018-02-21
    • NZD/JPY clambers up to take 79.00.
    • Kiwi confidence comes on the heels of Yen selling.

    NZD/JPY is climbing in Tokyo trading, testing into the 79.00 major level as of writing.

    The Kiwi is climbing following comments by the incoming head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Adrian Orr. Orr is returning to the post after leaving in 2007 and is expected to maintain the current targets set out by the RBNZ. 

    Helping the Kiwi climb is the Yen's recent reversal, receding from its high position following threatening language from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) that strongly hinted at the potential for intervention if the Yen doesn't begin to back down.

    Japan will see the Industry Activity Index today at 01:10 GMT, where market forecasts are calling for a small contraction in the numbers, anticipating a reading of 0.5% over the previous period's 1.0%. Later today will also see foreign investment numbers in both stocks and bonds for Japan, slated for 23:50.

    NZD/JPY Technicals

    The pair seems to have found a bottom following the bounce from 77.63, and the price is now pushing upwards towards the 34 EMA at 79.38 and the 200-day SMA sitting near 79.77. With the pair breaking the 79.00 major level, the challenge will now be to hold onto this area confidently, with support priced in at yesterday's high of 78.93, with further support from 78.80 and 78.44, while resistance is priced in from 79.30 and 79.58.

     

  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand's new Governor, Adrian Orr

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has a new governor, Adrian Orr, who will begin his tenure at the head of New Zealand's central bank on March 27th. Governor Orr reaffirmed his dedication to the previous leadership's plans for the NZ economy going forward. Key highlights: Is 'comfortab...

    2018-02-21

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has a new governor, Adrian Orr, who will begin his tenure at the head of New Zealand's central bank on March 27th. Governor Orr reaffirmed his dedication to the previous leadership's plans for the NZ economy going forward.

    Key highlights:

    • Is 'comfortable' with planned reforms to the RBNZ.
    • Expects to sign the Policy Target Agreement before he takes office.

    Orr previously served as the RBNZ governor for four years before joining the New Zealand Super Fund in 2007. Orr is widely considered an accomplished economist and is anticipated to maintain the RBNZ's current targets going forward.

    The Policy Target Agreement is a publicly-available document that must be re-negotiated and signed every time a new head of the RBNZ is selected, and targets for price stability must be included in its terms.

  • BOJ's Funo - No need to be too pessimistic about the economy

    Comments from Bank of Japan's  (BOJ) Funo are crossing the wires via LiveSquawk- No need to be too pessimistic about the economy.  Takes time for productivity to improve.  ...

    2018-02-21

    Comments from Bank of Japan's  (BOJ) Funo are crossing the wires via LiveSquawk-

    • No need to be too pessimistic about the economy. 
    • Takes time for productivity to improve. 

  • IMF on Australia - Near term risks are more balanced

    The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) view of Australia economy is crossing the wires via Bloomberg and LiveSquawk- Near-term risks are more balanced.  2018 GDP seen at 2.9 percent. 2019 GDP at 3.1 percent.  The jobless rate is seen at 5.3 percent this year and 5.2 percent in 2....

    2018-02-21

    The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) view of Australia economy is crossing the wires via Bloomberg and LiveSquawk-

    • Near-term risks are more balanced. 
    • 2018 GDP seen at 2.9 percent. 2019 GDP at 3.1 percent. 
    • The jobless rate is seen at 5.3 percent this year and 5.2 percent in 2.19 and 5 percent in 2020. 
    • The consumer price index (CPI) is seen at 2.1 percent in 2018 and 2.2 percent in 2019.

  • GBP/JPY climbing higher in Tokyo trading

    GBP/JPY moving up as Yen declines. BoJ trying to protect growth from strong currency. GBP/JPY gained on Tuesday and is continuing to climb in Tokyo trading, testing the 150.50 area as of writing. The Yen has begun to recede following thinly-veiled threats from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) late...

    2018-02-21
    • GBP/JPY moving up as Yen declines.
    • BoJ trying to protect growth from strong currency.

    GBP/JPY gained on Tuesday and is continuing to climb in Tokyo trading, testing the 150.50 area as of writing.

    The Yen has begun to recede following thinly-veiled threats from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) late last week. As the Yen has continued to strengthen in exchanges, the BoJ's rhetoric changed abruptly on Friday, stating that they are watching FX markets closely, and will intervene if they deem it necessary. This marks an abrupt shift in the central bank's tone, who up until this point has maintained a soothing, demure posture. With an elevated Yen threatening to eat away at the meager growth Japan is experiencing, a keen edge has developed to the BoJ's words.

    Japan will see the Industry Activity Index at 04:30 GMT today, with foreign investment figures dropping later at 23:50. 

    The UK also has a slew of data coming out at 14:15, with a speech from the Bank of England's (BOE) Broadbent, followed by a trio of speeches from MPC Members Broadbent, Haldane, and Tenreyro. Inflation Report Hearings will also be happening through the day involving the BoE and the Financial Services Authority (FSA).

    GBP/JPY Technicals

    With the recent bullish correction, the pair has begun backing away from the 200-day SMA and is inching closer to the 34 EMA, currently sitting at 151.63. The pair is still in bull trend territory but will have to breach the swing lows acting as resistance before the longterm trend can resume to the upside. Support for the pair is currently priced in at the 150.00 handle, 148.77, and 148.13, while resistance has formed at 150.80 and 151.43.

array(9) { ["success"]=> bool(false) ["error"]=> NULL ["countries"]=> array(193) { [0]=> string(11) "Afghanistan" [1]=> string(7) "Albania" [2]=> string(7) "Algeria" [3]=> string(7) "Andorra" [4]=> string(6) "Angola" [5]=> string(19) "Antigua and Barbuda" [6]=> string(9) "Argentina" [7]=> string(7) "Armenia" [8]=> string(9) "Australia" [9]=> string(7) "Austria" [10]=> string(10) "Azerbaijan" [11]=> string(7) "Bahamas" [12]=> string(7) "Bahrain" [13]=> string(10) "Bangladesh" [14]=> string(8) "Barbados" [15]=> string(7) "Belarus" [16]=> string(7) "Belgium" [17]=> string(6) "Belize" [18]=> string(5) "Benin" [19]=> string(6) "Bhutan" [20]=> string(7) "Bolivia" [21]=> string(22) "Bosnia and Herzegovina" [22]=> string(8) "Botswana" [23]=> string(6) "Brazil" [24]=> string(6) "Brunei" [25]=> string(8) "Bulgaria" [26]=> string(12) "Burkina Faso" [27]=> string(7) "Burundi" [28]=> string(8) "Cambodia" [29]=> string(8) "Cameroon" [30]=> string(6) "Canada" [31]=> string(10) "Cape Verde" [32]=> string(24) "Central African Republic" [33]=> string(4) "Chad" [34]=> string(5) "Chile" [35]=> string(5) "China" [36]=> string(7) "Colombi" [37]=> string(7) "Comoros" [38]=> string(19) "Congo (Brazzaville)" [39]=> string(5) "Congo" [40]=> string(10) "Costa Rica" [41]=> string(13) "Cote d'Ivoire" [42]=> string(7) "Croatia" [43]=> string(4) "Cuba" [44]=> string(6) "Cyprus" [45]=> string(14) "Czech Republic" [46]=> string(7) "Denmark" [47]=> string(8) "Djibouti" [48]=> string(8) "Dominica" [49]=> string(18) "Dominican Republic" [50]=> string(24) "East Timor (Timor Timur)" [51]=> string(7) "Ecuador" [52]=> string(5) "Egypt" [53]=> string(11) "El Salvador" [54]=> string(17) "Equatorial Guinea" [55]=> string(7) "Eritrea" [56]=> string(7) "Estonia" [57]=> string(8) "Ethiopia" [58]=> string(4) "Fiji" [59]=> string(7) "Finland" [60]=> string(6) "France" [61]=> string(5) "Gabon" [62]=> string(11) "Gambia, The" [63]=> string(7) "Georgia" [64]=> string(7) "Germany" [65]=> string(5) "Ghana" [66]=> string(6) "Greece" [67]=> string(7) "Grenada" [68]=> string(9) "Guatemala" [69]=> string(6) "Guinea" [70]=> string(13) "Guinea-Bissau" [71]=> string(6) "Guyana" [72]=> string(5) "Haiti" [73]=> string(8) "Honduras" [74]=> string(7) "Hungary" [75]=> string(7) "Iceland" [76]=> string(5) "India" [77]=> string(9) "Indonesia" [78]=> string(4) "Iran" [79]=> string(4) "Iraq" [80]=> string(7) "Ireland" [81]=> string(6) "Israel" [82]=> string(5) "Italy" [83]=> string(7) "Jamaica" [84]=> string(5) "Japan" [85]=> string(6) "Jordan" [86]=> string(10) "Kazakhstan" [87]=> string(5) "Kenya" [88]=> string(8) "Kiribati" [89]=> string(12) "Korea, North" [90]=> string(7) "Lebanon" [91]=> string(12) "Korea, South" [92]=> string(6) "Kuwait" [93]=> string(10) "Kyrgyzstan" [94]=> string(4) "Laos" [95]=> string(6) "Latvia" [96]=> string(7) "Lesotho" [97]=> string(7) "Liberia" [98]=> string(5) "Libya" [99]=> string(13) "Liechtenstein" [100]=> string(9) "Lithuania" [101]=> string(10) "Luxembourg" [102]=> string(9) "Macedonia" [103]=> string(10) "Madagascar" [104]=> string(6) "Malawi" [105]=> string(8) "Malaysia" [106]=> string(8) "Maldives" [107]=> string(4) "Mali" [108]=> string(5) "Malta" [109]=> string(16) "Marshall Islands" [110]=> string(10) "Mauritania" [111]=> string(9) "Mauritius" [112]=> string(6) "Mexico" [113]=> string(10) "Micronesia" [114]=> string(7) "Moldova" [115]=> string(6) "Monaco" [116]=> string(8) "Mongolia" [117]=> string(7) "Morocco" [118]=> string(10) "Mozambique" [119]=> string(7) "Myanmar" [120]=> string(7) "Namibia" [121]=> string(5) "Nauru" [122]=> string(5) "Nepal" [123]=> string(11) "Netherlands" [124]=> string(11) "New Zealand" [125]=> string(9) "Nicaragua" [126]=> string(5) "Niger" [127]=> string(7) "Nigeria" [128]=> string(6) "Norway" [129]=> string(4) "Oman" [130]=> string(8) "Pakistan" [131]=> string(5) "Palau" [132]=> string(6) "Panama" [133]=> string(16) "Papua New Guinea" [134]=> string(8) "Paraguay" [135]=> string(4) "Peru" [136]=> string(11) "Philippines" [137]=> string(6) "Poland" [138]=> string(8) "Portugal" [139]=> string(5) "Qatar" [140]=> string(7) "Romania" [141]=> string(6) "Russia" [142]=> string(6) "Rwanda" [143]=> string(21) "Saint Kitts and Nevis" [144]=> string(11) "Saint Lucia" [145]=> string(13) "Saint Vincent" [146]=> string(5) "Samoa" [147]=> string(10) "San Marino" [148]=> string(21) "Sao Tome and Principe" [149]=> string(12) "Saudi Arabia" [150]=> string(7) "Senegal" [151]=> string(21) "Serbia and Montenegro" [152]=> string(10) "Seychelles" [153]=> string(12) "Sierra Leone" [154]=> string(9) "Singapore" [155]=> string(8) "Slovakia" [156]=> string(8) "Slovenia" [157]=> string(15) "Solomon Islands" [158]=> string(7) "Somalia" [159]=> string(12) "South Africa" [160]=> string(5) "Spain" [161]=> string(9) "Sri Lanka" [162]=> string(5) "Sudan" [163]=> string(8) "Suriname" [164]=> string(9) "Swaziland" [165]=> string(6) "Sweden" [166]=> string(11) "Switzerland" [167]=> string(5) "Syria" [168]=> string(6) "Taiwan" [169]=> string(10) "Tajikistan" [170]=> string(8) "Tanzania" [171]=> string(8) "Thailand" [172]=> string(4) "Togo" [173]=> string(5) "Tonga" [174]=> string(19) "Trinidad and Tobago" [175]=> string(7) "Tunisia" [176]=> string(6) "Turkey" [177]=> string(12) "Turkmenistan" [178]=> string(6) "Tuvalu" [179]=> string(6) "Uganda" [180]=> string(7) "Ukraine" [181]=> string(20) "United Arab Emirates" [182]=> string(14) "United Kingdom" [183]=> string(13) "United States" [184]=> string(7) "Uruguay" [185]=> string(10) "Uzbekistan" [186]=> string(7) "Vanuatu" [187]=> string(12) "Vatican City" [188]=> string(9) "Venezuela" [189]=> string(7) "Vietnam" [190]=> string(5) "Yemen" [191]=> string(6) "Zambia" [192]=> string(8) "Zimbabwe" } ["language"]=> array(7) { [1]=> string(7) "English" [2]=> string(14) "Русский" [3]=> string(8) "Español" [4]=> string(14) "العربية" [5]=> string(8) "Francais" [6]=> string(9) "日本话" [7]=> string(6) "中文" } ["sendto"]=> array(2) { [1]=> string(13) "IB Department" [2]=> string(16) "Customer Service" } ["videoconference"]=> array(4) { [1]=> string(18) "Introducing Broker" [2]=> string(11) "White Label" [3]=> string(15) "Senior Partners" [4]=> string(16) "Franchise Scheme" } ["subject"]=> array(6) { [1]=> string(15) "Technical Issue" [2]=> string(14) "Platform Issue" [3]=> string(11) "Trade Issue" [4]=> string(13) "Deposit Issue" [5]=> string(14) "Withdraw Issue" [6]=> string(5) "Other" } ["data"]=> NULL ["needsmscode"]=> bool(false) }